The Deal Of The Century: Is There Any Reason For Optimism?

The Deal Of The Century: Is There Any Reason For Optimism?

By Rabbi Boaz D. Heilman

With his acceptance of President Trump’s “Deal of the Century” peace plan, Benjamin Netanyahu becomes the sixth prime minister to agree to the principle of transferring  land for peace with the Arabs.

Will he be the first to see this policy accomplish anything? I doubt it. 

Starting with Israel’s acceptance of the Nov. 29, 1947 UN Partition Plan, which divided “Palestine” into separate Jewish and Palestinian States, the principle of land for peace has been one that Israel has consistently accepted. Six Israeli Prime Ministers have since demonstrated their commitment to this principle: Menachem Begin, Yitzhak Rabin, Ehud Barak, Arik Sharon, Ehud Olmert and now Netanyahu.

And while the return of the Sinai Peninsula to Egypt by Menachem Begin did result in a fragile peace agreement, no such happy ending came after Sharon agreed to Israeli withdrawal from Gaza—which resulted in the Strip’s takeover by Hamas—or the withdrawal from Lebanon—which permitted another terrorist organization, the Iranian military proxy Hezbollah, to take over that nation.

There are many reasons to be less than hopeful that the Palestinians will agree to the latest plan. It is true that, for the first time, several Arab countries are supportive of the Century Deal (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, Oman, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates), and this in itself offers a glimmer of hope for some agreement down the line. However, the key “partner” to the peace negotiation, the Palestinian Authority, has rejected the plan out of hand (as have the even more militant nations and groups such as Iran and its proxies, as well as the Islamic Caliphate, aka ISIS).

As predicted, Trump’s plan is hated by nearly everyone.

And there are good reasons. Following are some of the key ones.

The West Bank (Judea and Samaria):  In the plans agreed to by Barak and Olmert, the Palestinians would have gotten much more land than under the current, Trump-Netanyahu plan. In past talks, Israel was prepared to cede more than 94% of the West Bank and compensate the Palestinians for the remaining 6%. In 2008, Israel offered to withdraw from the Arab neighborhoods of East Jerusalem and put the Temple Mount and Old City under international control. Under the current plan, the Arabs would get only 70% of the West Bank, far less than they would have gotten (and rejected) in previous offers.

Jerusalem’s holy sites: The Palestinians want to exclude any non-Muslim prayer at the Temple Mount. President Trump’s plan states that, “People of every faith should be permitted to pray on the Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif, in a manner that is fully respectful to their religion, taking into account the times of each religion’s prayers and holidays, as well as other religious factors.” Considering that the Second Intifada as well as other acts of terrorism acts were instigated after what Arabs perceived as Jews attempting to pray on the sacred Temple Mount, there is no reason to believe that the Arabs will change their minds this time around.

Right of Return: The first Arab-Israeli war of 1948 resulted in some 700,000 Arab refugees. About 1/3 of them fled to Jordan (which assumed control of the West Bank); 1/3 fled to the Egyptian-controlled Gaza Strip; another 1/3 fled to Lebanon and Syria. None of those governments made any attempt to absorb the refugees. Denied citizenship, the refugees were instead confined to impoverished refugee camps, with little or no infrastructure, electricity, basic hygiene or running water. The camps were (and still are) maintained by UNWRA and other international organizations. 

During this entire time, the Arabs have insisted on the right of all refugees to return to lands now controlled by Israel. Israel has consistently rejected this claim. Trump’s plan states, “There shall be no right of return by absorption of any Palestinian refugees in the State of Israel.” It also stipulates that refugees should be resettled in the Palestinian state or in another country.  Here too, if history offers any hint of what’s to come, the Palestinians will reject this clause of the plan. 

Demilitarization: Trump’s plan calls for an end to acts of terrorism and the demilitarization of the Palestinians both in the West Bank and in Gaza. There is almost nil chance that this will happen. On second thought, forget the “almost” and leave the “nil” in place. That’s the probability of this ever happening. Look at how some Americans react to the calls to ban automatic weapons, magnify it a thousand times, add generational hatred, religious narrow-mindedness, daily incitement, and the expansionist designs of the Iranian ayatollah regime, and you begin to see things as they realistically are in the Middle East. 

Prisoner exchange: The Arabs insist that all security prisoners held by Israel be released. The Trump plan calls for the release of all but those convicted of murder, attempted murder, or conspiracy to commit murder, “including within the framework of terrorism activities.” Simultaneously, the plan calls for the release of two Israeli citizens and the remains of two IDF soldiers still held by the terrorist organization Hamas. Hamas, of course, has never agreed to this, and probably won’t do so in the foreseeable future.  

Israelis have their own reservations, too.

Hardline fanaticism:  While this is a vocal (and sometimes obnoxious) camp, there is historical precedent proving Israel’s ability to enforce legal and political decisions and to compel this extremist group to abide by government decision (see the withdrawals from Sinai and the Gaza Strip). If the Trump Plan succeeds, there is no doubt in anyone’s mind that even the most militant right-wing groups in Israel will ultimately give in and obey. The scene will probably be ugly, but the rule of law does prevail in the State of Israel. 

Jerusalem: Many Israelis want Jerusalem to remain Israel’s undivided capital. Trump’s plan would make some neighborhoods of East Jerusalem, as well as other areas further to the east, the Palestinian State’s capital, to be called “Al-Quds,” the name Arabs give to Jerusalem. Furthermore, Trump has promised to validate this new capital by opening a US embassy there.

Land Transfer and Israeli settlements: Under the proposed plan, several areas in the western part of the Negev Desert would be handed to the Palestinians. Additionally, 15 Israeli settlements in the West Bank (Judea and Samaria) would remain under Israel control but be surrounded by the Palestinian State. Quite reasonably, residents of these settlements see this as unacceptable and dangerous.

Political pragmatism: While there are many hardliners who are opposed a priori to the establishment of any Palestinian State, there are also those who are concerned that should such a state arise, it would soon be taken over by militant Muslim groups such as Hamas and IS, turning the region into a third active front in the war against Israel’s existence.

Surprising reactions: In an interesting and telling view from yet another Arab perspective, in a region known as “The Triangle” (an area that protrudes precariously close to the coastal cities of Netanya, Hadera and even Tel Aviv), residents of 10 Arab cities and villages that under the Trump plan would be handed to the Palestinian Authority have expressed resentment and even anger at the idea that their homes would become part of a Palestinian state. “We will turn into refugees there,” is their commonly held belief—again, one backed by history. Not unlike many other Arabs who live in Israel, they prefer to retain their Israeli citizenship. 

These are but some of the forces and politics that are active in this perennially explosive region. Nor does this general overview take into consideration the political and military interests of Iran, Turkey, Russia, and the Western superpowers. Considered together, however, there is little reason for optimism regarding this latest peace plan.

Support and opposition to the plan in the United States: Opinions in the US predictably follow political affiliations. The Republican Jewish Coalition endorses the plan. AIPAC (American Israel Public Affairs Committee) conditionally supports it, seeing the plan “as the basis to restart negotiations with the Palestinians” and urging “Palestinians to rejoin Israelis at the negotiating table.” The AJC—American Jewish Committee—tweeted that it “welcomes President Trump’s serious effort to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.” StandWithUs CEO Roz Rothstein said that the group “hopes this will be a step towards a better future for both peoples,” but that “it is ultimately up to Israeli and Palestinian leaders to resolve their conflict through direct negotiations.”

Not unexpectedly, harsh disapproval of the plan was voiced by the Jewish Democratic Council of America, J Street, Peace Now, IfNotNow, and Jewish Voice for Peace. 

These are the immediate reactions. If history has anything to teach us, it’s that the initial response from the Palestinian Arabs probably will be violent. This tragedy has been going on for 100 years now, and there’s little reason to think that anything will change any time soon. 

And yet, if leaders of both the Jewish State of Israel and the Palestinian people ever want to benefit from peace—and the boons are enormous—they will have to sit down with one another and work things out between themselves. That—short of a decisive war, which in this case would be disastrous for the entire world—is the only way to establish and maintain enduring peace. If down the line the “Deal Of The Century” proves the basis for such negotiations, then history will judge it a huge success. Otherwise, it will prove to be yet one more failure in a long series of missed opportunities.   

Sources for this general overview include interviews and opinions aired on various Israel media, as well as the highly informative article, “The Trump Plan: What’s Next?” by Amos Yadlin, INSS Insight No. 1254, January 28, 2020, https://www.inss.org.il/publication/the-trump-plan-whats-next/, accessed January 29, 2020. 

© 2020 by Boaz D. Heilman